Ocean City, NJ

LOOKING BACK ... LOOKING FORWARD ... from Ocean City, New Jersey

Part 4

During the last three postings we reviewed what has been happening to real estate in Ocean City in 2009. We looked back to past year stats, and we also highlighted the unique spring and fall buying periods in Ocean City's schedule with the summer rental season.

We will now look at some obstacles of a general and particular nature to help us think about the next buying period. Mortgage rates and the process of obtaining a mortgage are two factors that must be carefully considered here. Will rates stay the same in 2010. Will the process get any easier ... i.e. will they make it work a bit smoother for some of the buyers on the fringe.

Have we been having more difficulty because we are a resort community, an investor-oriented product, a second home market. These topics are important to think about because all of our buyers are certainly doing that too. Is the decision to purchase a second property away from one's primary residence now much more of a question for buyers ... if so, how much more of a question.

Although many feel that we have continued along in terms of our year-long national economic crisis ... is there still a type of negaive thinking that has permeated the thinking of potential buyers in that they just don't have to do this right now. In other words, is our particular product something that can be left on the string ... on a waiting list.

Do some buyers, or many buyers, still think that the resort market will continue to move further south before it makes a more decisive turn-around. Clearly, there may be some, a lot, of this thinking still out there.

These are tending toward a variety of random thoughts, free-thinking, which may be useful or maybe a bit too negative for our situation. What do you think? dap

LOOKING BACK ... LOOKING FORWARD from Ocean City, New Jersey

Part 3 ... The first two parts reviewed my reasoning for thinking about real estate by going back into past years and also by planning ahead for the next year. I also covered some of the recent 10-year "sold property" history here in Ocean City, New Jersey.

Let's take a look forward into 2010. In Ocean City we have returned to a two-part focus in terms of sales ... the spring buying period which covers late February through early June ... our most extensive sales effort of the year, and the fall buying period which covers September through late November ... our second major effort following the busy summer rental season.

Obviously, you can also see that we have two less attractive time frames ... the holiday month of December followed by two very cold months of the year, clearly an off-time for sales in Ocean City, New Jersey. We also have the summer rental months which can often find you with potential buyers, but it becomes much more difficult to get into sale properties due to rental tenants.

When you consider the two breaks in the year, one can never be sure that the steam you had going into a break will remain when you start the next "buying period." And based on the past two years, the fall buying period has not run a full course for the past two calendar years. In other words, it is a shorter time frame and not nearly as buyer -directed as the spring time frame. This represents a topic that should be reconsidered in one's future calendar planning for 2010.

Finally, you also have a number of buyers who don't follow the schedule as defined above. They go according to their own schedule which may differ completely from one that you might want to do. In particular, it is not as easy to make things work for all parties because many resort buyers run a course or timeline that may cover a one-to-five-year arrangement ... in other words, in a resort setting many buyers take a great deal of time in their pursuit of shore property here in Ocean City.

So we have now covered some of the established and not-so-established aspects of resort real estate when it comes to working with buyers within a scheduled time frame including the very busy summer rental season. How can we provide for everyone in light of what has been described? dap

LOKING BACK ... LOOKING FORWARD ... from Ocean City, New Jersey

In Part 1 (11/16/2009) I mentioned that at this time of year I start to analyze 2009 by reflecting back and forward as well. I also talked about looking at real estate from a local perspective even though national economic news can impact on all areas as it has done since October, 2008. I also mentioned that many people tend to generalize real estate in terms of a national perspective instead of so many smaller units like our own area, Ocean City (NJ).

Part 2

In order to understand almost anything one must reflect on "the history of things." In our case, that means taking a careful look back to reflect on the "sold property" market through the past 10 years. Why should we do this? Because this may tend to provide us with some insight into where we have been and maybe where we might be going. And, of course, maybe not ... in terms of a clear picture. Sometime history does not always provide the answer you were hoping it might.

In summary, the late 1990s and 2000s were the beginning of a 5-6 year run of very strong sale years here in Ocean City, a time when property values began to soar in the single family and condominium real estate market. Let's now focus on 2005 which for many was a very strong year as well, but for others one could see the ending of the bull real estate market during the last 6, or 3 months of that year (again here in Ocean City, New Jersey).

In other words, the 2006 year opened with increased number of property inventory, particularly in the condominium market. Things settled down a bit more in 2007 and 2008 with lower inventories and a bit more coming together of the condominium sales market in terms of property values. However short sales continued more in this property category than any other. 2009 started strong with intentions of being as good or better than the last two years. However, we arrived at the fall buying period in September with an overall flattening of our sales market. 2009 will turn out to be our weakest year of the past four (2006 through 2009).

A word should also be mentioned about single family sales during this period. They tended to stay in a much stronger position possibly due to the fact that the owner population here were less speculative in their purchasing during the boom period. Overall, the single family property category maintain a much stronger position in terms of sale inventory and property value throughout the 2006 through 2009 time frame.

That a very short review of the 2000 through 2009 time frame as one reflects on the overall background of the market conditions in real estate in Ocean City, New Jersey. dap

LOOKING BACK ... LOOKING FORWARD ... from Ocean City, New Jersey

Part 1

About this time during the calendar year in a resort community like Ocean City, even though the "Indian Summer" that often arrives in late September or early October has arrived later in November this year, I find myself thinking about the business year in real estate: how I have done, the agency, and the overall stats across our barrier island. I also begin to think about the coming year as well: will it be the same, better, worse. As I do this, I also reflect on the bigger picture across Cape May County, the state of New Jersey, and the United States as a whole.

It always amazes me when anyone talks about real estate that they inject "a sort of national perspective" into the whole thing. Clearly, the past few years did have a profound negative national impact on real estate everywhere. But although generalists like to discuss real estate in light of the national picture, it must always be viewed from a local perspective. Although for the past couple of years, a lot has happened to real estate in light of all that has happen to our overall economic picture ... each indiviudal real estate market continued with other factors directly related to their own location and conditions.

Clearly, what happens in Atlantic City, New Jersey ... a short half hour away ... but hours and hours of differences in terms of population, business, owners, and renters. However, that economy and its direction does influence us. We're also influenced by Cape May County which is the location that our barrier known as Ocean City is located. But we are also much closer to Somers Point, Longport, and Margate geographically so Atlantic County (and Atlantic City) impacts us as well.

I guess this is the introduction to what I suspect will be one of a number of postings on my "looking back ... looking forward" approach to the analysis of our market. Please continue to tune in ... and I particularly welcome any and all ideas ... I encourage responses pro and con from your unique corner of the world as you see your location as compared to my own ... Ocean City, New Jersey. dap

Resort Real Estate and the differences from "real world" real estate ... in Ocean City, New Jersey

We "resort realtors" know we're a bit different ... with many of us along the coastal locations next to oceans, or in the mountains at the ski areas, or along lake locations all over the place, or in other warm and cold areas that tend to attract seasonal people. Wherever the resort, you will find resort realtors. And there is an obvious difference in what they do, where they do it, etc.

This is particularly true in "South Jersey coastal communities along the Atlantic Ocean. Most of our property owners live one, two, three, or more hours from our location here in Ocean City, New Jersey. Weather is always the major area of concern for owners, more so when they are not here at the time of said weather problem. In recent years, the most damaging weather has been nor'easters.

So one significant aspect for a resort realtor is to work with owners, rental owners, and others to communicate what has been happening here, how long the significant weather situation may last, and any property problems that the owner should be notified about.

Here is the northern part of the barrier island of Ocean City, the Northend and Gardens, those sections north of Sixth Street to the end of the island ... we have a much better handle on because many of the agents at French Real Estate, Inc. both live, work, and play in this particular part of Ocean City, New Jersey. That makes it that much easier to check on properties, to get around a much smaller residential section of the island, and to be able to communicate with owners much faster.

So reflecting on our recent storm which is slowly coming to a close today or tomorrow, these things have been on my mind. For example, on my particular two-block section in the Gardens; there are only about 7-8 owners living year round here. There are one or two of them who are much older than the norm so everyone watches out for them. We also have many vacant "second home properties" here as well. So many owners phone or text me about what has been happening. In the office it is more of the same including many more emails.

The important thing is that I represent many of these owners from past sales, recent connections, sale listings, and rental listings, etc. That is part of our, and many other agency, responsibilities as we continue to make things happen in Ocean City, New Jersey. dap