About Cincinnati's Montgomery

June numbers are in for Montgomery, Blue Ash, Symmes Township and Sycamore Township, all part of the Sycamore School district. For the month, 65 homes or condos were sold. There are currently 406 homes actively on the market and 76 pending sales.

Credit Suisse provides a monthly analysis of real estate traffic (showings) across the country. The traffic index level dropped to levels not seen since the credit crisis began in late '08. The sharp fall off in traffic was expected in May, but June only added to the slowdown. The most worrisome aspect of their index is that the numbers continued to fall throughout the month.

Along with that, the number of pending home sales across the country dropped 30% from May, 15% below May, 2009. The number of closings will continue to decline in July and August based upon this.

So, what does that mean? Overall, it demonstrates that the consumer pushed their buying plans ahead in order to qualify for the $8000 or $6500 federal tax credit. Now, homeowners can expect to be on the market longer and may be forced to further lower home prices, through reductions or concessions in negotiating a sale.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors notes that, "The tax credit has broadly stabilized home prices. Now the key test on whether the housing market can stand on its own without the stimulus medicine will depend on private job creation in the second half of the year and conditions on the Gulf Coast. If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions."

Montgomery, Blue Ash, Symmes Township and Sycamore Township have had 561 sales from June 30, 2009 to July 1, 2010. That turns out to be approximately 47 per month. At that rate, there are approximately 8.6 months of inventory. five to six months of inventory is considered a balanced market.

Homes and condo sales continued at a brisk pace for May, 2010 in Montgomery, Blue Ash, Symmes Township and Sycamore Township (Sycamore School district). 59 homes closed in the month of May. There are currently 80 homes pending closing and 396 homes and condos that are actively listed for sale.

Troubling issues raised by the above graph show that we are approximately at average prices of homes and condos sold in 2005. This is causing difficulties for people wanting to refinance in this time of extremely low mortgage rates. It is also a problem for those with little equity in their home, who need to sell because of a relocation or change in family circumstances.

According to Credit Suisse's monthly survey, traffic levels (number of visitors to homes for sale) have been slower in May. This is caused by the end of the homebuyer tax credit. It forced many buyers to buy ahead of what might have been their regular time schedule. Low traffic levels may result in a longer time to sell a house and price reductions.

The Cincinnati Multiple Listing Service reported an overall uptick of 25% from May of 2009 to May of 2010 on the number of homes sold in the region. That is more than the 19% reported for nationwide home sales. June sales are expected to also remain strong as the last of the tax credit homebuyers close on their homes.

The Federal Tax Stimulus drove sales in April, 2010, pushing Buyers to purchase by April 30 and demanding that Sellers price their homes to sell. Traffic exceeded the usual expectations of Realtors for the April time frame. Additionally, prices improved in the lower price ranges.

In fact, traffic was skewed to the lower end of the market. First time buyers represented the majority of demand. Homes listed for over $300,000 continue to be more difficult to sell than in the recent past.

There are currently 291 active listings in these neighborhoods in the Sycamore School distirct. There are 83 pending sales and 59 homes closed in April.

There were 17 homes sold during the month of February in the Sycamore School District, including Montgomery, Blue Ash, Symmes Township and Sycamore Township. Additionally there are 68 pending sales.

Every expectation indicates that the extension and expansion of the home buyer tax credit will help home sales in the first half of this year. Pending sales are expected to increase as the April 30 deadline approaches for purchase contracts to be in place. These contracts must close by June 30 to qualify for the $8000 or $6500 credits.

But, what should we expect in the second half of the year? Economists say that the health of the housing market will depend upon jobs. The Gross Domestic Product is predicted to grow 3%, but jobs still show a mixed picture. At this point unemployment could increase to 10.5% in the second quarter before improving.

Factors that make economists believe that the job market is moving in the right direction include the fact the temporary employment is up, more than a million jobs are being created by the census and that job markets that were hurt by the downturn are now adding jobs.

Realtors have confidence as sales continue to show gains across the board.

The New Year is upon us and demand for homes is already showing up, especially in the lower, first-time buyer market. Expectations are that the resell market will also see a benefit from the Federal Government Tax Stimulus.

Numbers for the Montgomery, Blue Ash, Symmes Township and Sycamore Township neighborhoods in the Sycamore School district in Cincinnati, Ohio are posted for January. The average of the 17 homes closed this month was $235,805, median was $155,000. The average home was on the market for 130 days. There are currently 216 homes on the market and 53 pending closing.

There is approximately 9.1 months of inventory available. A balanced market is considered to be 6 months of inventory.

February appears to be starting strong. The Cincinnati Team's phones have started ringing with buyers asking questions about homes on the market in the Cincinnati area. They are already out driving neighborhoods. You can expect that it will be several more months before the tire-kickers move on to serious looking and accepted contracts.

We expect the actual home sales of homes to kick into high gear as the April 30 drop dead date approaches for having a contract in place (to receive the $8000 or $6500 tax credit).