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Arlington, TX

Last Week in Review

Thomas Brewer: Real Estate Agent in Arlington, TX

"IT REQUIRES A GREAT DEAL OF BOLDNESS AND A GREAT DEAL OF CAUTION TO MAKE A GREAT FORTUNE." ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson. And a great deal of caution was definitely important last week, as "earnings season" began on Wall Street. First quarter earnings for Stocks got off to a bit of a rough start, with disappointing news from aluminum company Alcoa - always the first in line to report. And General Electric surprised to the downside on Friday, with worse than expected earnings and comments on future earnings, cautioning they'd likely be lower than previously thought. The Stock market didn't like the negative tone and lost some ground, while Bonds moved both up and down during the week - hurt by some inflationary fears, but helped by cash coming over from Stocks. For the week overall, home loan rates ended up close to where they began. Go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/ for more information.

In other news last week, "Meeting Minutes" from the March 18th Fed meeting revealed that infamous Fed Presidents Richard "Loose Lips" Fisher and Charlie Plosser both dissented from the recent decision to cut the Fed Funds Rate, stating that "inflation expectations could potentially become unhinged, if the Fed continues to lower the Fed Funds Rate in the current environment." Bold comments from two who clearly believe caution regarding inflation is of the utmost importance.

And caution, rather than confidence, seems to be the word of the moment, as Consumer Sentiment for April was reported far below expectations, representing a 26-yr low for the index. This very ugly reading suggests that consumers may be hesitant to make large purchases, which does not bode well for future economic prospects.

Despite the dark cloud cast from the negative economic news, the silver lining is that home loan rates are once again near levels not seen since mid-2005. But remember, these low rates can change quickly. To see how you may benefit from the current market

Sellers Versus Buyers - Or Is It David Versus Goliath

Thomas Brewer: Real Estate Agent in Arlington, TX
I have always believed that in the end everything balances in an equation or you have no equation at all. I have been taking potential buyers out to look at houses recently and I have found an interesting shift in what they are looking for. Go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/for more information.

Today's buyer wants and should expect from their buyers agent the very best possible deal that they can get. The interesting part of the equation is that while that is not new, the perception of the best deal they can get has changed. The press has inundated all of us with lowering home values and slow credit markets. While to a certain extent that is true depending upon your location it does not change the fact that the seller has only so much leverage in their transaction to where the equation does not equal up. I have seen this twice in the last week where the buyer and the seller would not move off of their respective positions in the negotiation although value is there for both parties.

I represent buyers and sellers in Texas and our markets while softening are not slow comparably speaking to other regions of the country. The perception from the buyer however is the same for all markets and the perception of the seller is the same as well. The conclusion is to inform your buyers as much as possible concerning our markets and prepping the seller so that there may need to be a soft landing to complete the transaction. Food for thought in interesting real estate times.

Forecast for the Week for Mansfield, Arlington and Fort Worth Real Estate and Homes for Sale Loans

Thomas Brewer: Real Estate Agent in Arlington, TX
Another classic Yogi Berra-ism is, "I never said most of the things I said." Luckily, the Fed can't make the same claim. This coming Tuesday, the "Meeting Minutes" or open commentary of the Fed's last monetary policy meeting will be released to the public. If there are inflammatory comments, the market could respond quickly. Go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/for more information.

Remember, when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower. And as you can see in the chart below, Bonds have rebounded higher off of their key 50-day moving average support level, and are moving back toward the upper portion of their current trading range. This means if Bond prices continue to move toward the upper boundary of the range, we could see home loan rates improve slightly.

Last Week in Review for Mansfield, Arlington and Fort Worth Real Eatate Loans

Thomas Brewer: Real Estate Agent in Arlington, TX
"I KNEW THE RECORD WOULD STAND UNTIL IT WAS BROKEN." ~ Yogi Berra A record was broken on the job front last Friday as the Labor Department reported a much worse than expected loss of 80,000 jobs in March - the greatest jobs loss reported in five years. In addition, revisions to both January and February's Jobs Report delivered an additional loss of 67,000 jobs - that's on top of the previously reported loss of 85,000 jobs for that two-month period. Go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/for more information.

And...the story might be even a bit gloomier than it already appears. The Labor Department uses a lot of averaging to help it come up with its numbers more quickly, but this practice can skew the current picture significantly. Think of it this way - and because it's now baseball season, here's a Baseball analogy - let's say that mid-way through the season, a red-hot hitter with a batting average of 340 declines into a bad slump for several weeks. While he now can't even hit a basketball thrown underhand to him, his average - while lower to 300 - is still very strong due to his previous hot performance. So someone looking at just the statistics may think that this batter is still absolutely terrific, but he is really someone the fans are booing as he approaches the plate. This is not very different from current numbers being reported by the Labor Department - previous averaging is likely causing an understating of the ACTUAL number of job losses...which somewhat masks how b ad the job market really is.

This bleak Jobs Report greatly boosts the odds of not only a first-quarter recession, but perhaps a worse economic downturn than many economists fear. The Federal Reserve may respond to this increasing trend in job losses with additional interest rate cuts when they next meet to determine monetary policy on April 30 and June 25. As we've seen in the past though, such rate cuts do not translate into lower long-term rates for mortgages, so there is no better time than right now to refinance an existing mortgage or to structure a new one. Let's work together to make sure your current financing is a home run!

What is the value of my home?

Thomas Brewer: Real Estate Agent in Arlington, TX
A huge debate seems to exist here between Realtors and Mortgage Brokers on this topic. I have been a Realtor for 12 years and a Mortgage Broker for 12 years so I believe I can clear this up. The value of your home is solely based on appraised value by the lender. Be careful of the competitve market analysis as it does not take into account all of the appraisal factors in determining market value. The analysis is also affected by human entry and error by individuals that are qualified to sell your house but unfortunately with the changes in the mortgage markets might not be able to price it to sell and close!!

In my honest opinion a great Realtor will always consult a great appraiser on value to be as accurate as possible for their clients. Unfortunately there is always somebody telling you they can sell your house for more so "Seller Beware". Please go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/for more information.