Kenmore, WA

People laugh when I say that blogging makes you smarter. "You can't be serious," they say, "isn't every Tom, Dick and Mary out there writing whatever comes into their minds and then blabbing it out to the world? Actually, this is a great question because it raises important issues such as:

• What about fact-checking: How does the reader know that the blogger is really researching a subject?
• What about journalistic integrity: Are bloggers utilizing legitimate sources and cross-checking them?
• What about plain old truth-telling? How can I know if a blogger is sincere?

Let me be clear: Whole books have been written about the problems with blogging. Probably one of the most thoughtful is Andrew Keen's "The Cult of the Amateur." His premise is that the internet is literally killing our culture! He calls into question the user-generated free content of amateurs which he claims is destroying our valued cultural institutions such as newspapers, magazines, movies, books, etc..

Well, it hasn't taken long for part of his theory to come true. Many of the largest national newspapers are having serious financial problems due to the increasing number of on-line news services, blogs and websites. Recently, the Christian Science Monitor announced that it is going to cease publishing a daily paper in favor of its on-line self. Whether we like it or not, the internet has forever changed the face of news-gathering. It's where most people will get their information.

I do believe that Mr. Keen is wrong about the value of blogging content. Let me give you an example of how I put together a blog post:

Pick the Subject

As a realtor I have a keen interest in my local market place. My goal in blogging is to provide my readers with informative and accurate information regarding home sales and values here in Kenmore, WA. Today, I wanted to address a post on a popular and provocative blog called Seattlebubble.com. In a recent post entitled "J. Lennox Scott & Dick Beeson Predictions vs. Reality the author basically "called out" the two regional industry gurus buy highlighting numerous incorrect predictions they've made about the market over the last year. Basically, he's saying that they are dead-wrong. If you read the blog commentary, it's obvious that the author, "The Tim," hit a real raw nerve with real estate agents and consumers.

Fact Gathering

The author of Seattlebubble.com cites a number of reputiable sources for his statistics and quotes. Moreover, I have access to numerous sources of my own. In my last post, my sources back up the notion that we should all be a little skeptical of "predictions" regarding real estate. The experts have been dead wrong recently. Let me also direct you to an incredibly sobering article in U.S.A. Today that puts the current housing market in perspective.

Writing the Blog Post

After doing the research and thinking about the best way to present the material, I then write the article. In order to help my readers understand the subject, I try to hyperlink to as many other reputiable sources as possible. The fun part for us bloggers is that we can often be a conduit for other important writers to educate us about the world. We don't have to make things up. We have a world full of vetted, respected experts at our fingertips. In a nutshell: Blogging makes us smarter.

On final thing: I highly recommend you read this report.

The end of 2008 is turning out to be one of the most challenging real estate markets in decades. A huge number of difficult factors have converged in a sort of "perfect storm" which has utterly destroyed confidence in the market. Even after the Fed provided capital to help stabilize the financial markets, consumers aren't out there buying up homes, even though prices have softened. To illustrate how slow things are, please turn to the following charts which represent "absorption rates" for November:

PUGET SOUND ABSORPTION RATES

Absorption rates are based on the ratio between active listings and the net number of homes that are in the sale process. According to the charts above, only 8.2% of the listed homes were absorbed in November.

KING COUNTY ABSORPTION RATES

King County fared slightly better with 10.6% of the homes were absorbed in November.

SNOHOMISH COUNTY ABSORPTION RATES

Snohomish County absorbed 8.8% of the active inventory in November.

I'd like to say something light and positive at this point; however, I'm a big proponent of facing the brutal facts of the current reality: the market has gone into a coma for the time being. Also, home prices have fallen this year which is discouraging. I would also like to say that homes ARE selling in spite of all the challenges. About the only wise thing to do for now is continue to monitor the housing market for signs of improvement. Now, more than ever, make sure you're working with a real estate professional when searching for a home.

Picture by inju

As we near the end of 2007, real estate "experts" with some crazy predictions are sprouting up like so many weeds in the garden. Perhaps some of the newly unemployed are spending more time in front of the computer, perusing the statistics and attempting to draw conclusions from all the grim news coming out of the press. The truth is, the REAL experts don't seem to have any better grasp of reality than the amateurs. Take the most recent Northwest Multiple Listing Service press release dated Dec. 4th:

• Prices down
• Pending sales down
• Inventory dropped 1.8% (still the largest inventory in years)
• Rising foreclosures and bankruptcies

What conclusions do the MLS experts draw from these facts? Housing activity reflects "microclimates!" This is just a fancy way of saying that real estate is local which everyone knows. The report then goes on to quote Pat Grimm, Dick Beeson and J. Lennox Scott (owners of well-known local brokerages) who all basically avoid saying that the market will fall further in the coming months. About the only good news is the recent talk about lowering mortgage interest rates. According to the report, this may stimulate first time home buyers to enter the market.

The fact is, all of the economic data points to a gloomy Northwest economy in 2009. Certainly, it's not the end of the world, but the real estate industry is suffering from a serious hangover. I hope sobriety comes soon...but I'm not holding my breath.

The last time we visited Vancouver, BC was well over ten years ago. At that time we spent most of the day in Chinatown during a festival with dancing dragons, thundering traditional drums and fire crackers. We also managed to visit the ”uber-touristy” Gastown district (not my favorite place). Overall it was a magical day. The funny thing is, we weren’t able to conjure up a good reason to visit Vancouver since then. It was only after a good friend suggested we take our wives out-of-town for a shopping trip that Vancouver seemed like a good idea………So, here are some of my observations about Vancouver:

NOT A “CHARMING TOWN”

Vancouver lies in a beautiful, natural setting: water, mountains, forests…but don’t forget, it’s a big city with over 600,000 residents and its downtown is a noisy and crowded place. The picture above paints an accurate picture of the city: lots of non-descript, concrete buildings surrounded by LOTS of traffic. I have been to Vancouver 4 times, and I still feel that one has to look hard for the grand old buildings in between all the new structures….and there are more new buildings on the way, as the city is gearing up for the 2010 Olympics.

Lots of wonderful shops and restaurants

OK, since shopping was the objective, Vancouver scored a 100% rating! Suffice it to say that my feet still hurt from all the walking we did. Our wives were intent on visiting every shop in Pacific Centre, Vancouver Centre Mall and Granville Station. Oh, don’t let me forget Robson Street. This long avenue is lined with wonderful boutiques and restaurants. Our wives made sure we didn’t miss them either. Check out this cool website. Just click on the picture for details on all the shops:

Yesterday the sun came out and it was a gorgeous day. It was crisp and clear so we decided to take the Skytrain from downtown over to what is known as the Italian District east of the city.

Unfortunately, there is little Italian in Little Italy. There are very few Italian shops or restaurants there and those we visited were disappointing. There are some nice views of the city from this area (pic above) but I can’t recommend you spend time here if you’re looking for an Italian experience.

The Best and the Worst

First, let’s talk about the worst: Vancouver’s homeless people. There are an incredible number of indigents on the streets of downtown Vancouver. There are also a huge number of young people who are obviously involved in drugs. Seattle suffers from a similar problem. I believe this is a result of Vancouver and Seattle being very ”liveable” cities with relatively mild climates and kind-hearted citizens. On the flip side, the residents of Vancouver are as amicable and friendly as can be. Even when we were on a Skytrain returning to the city, packed together like sardines, everyone was polite and jolly.

The Best: CinCin Ristorante Italiano. Located on Robson Street, this was an incredibly good restaurant. The dishes were elegant yet not overstated. The menu included a wide variety of excellent choices from a simple Spaghettini with Clams, Cured Fennel Sausage, Chive and Shallots to Sturgeon, Wood Oven Roasted, Black Trumpet Crust, Creamy Leek Local Baby Turnips, Beet and Red Wine Reduction. I’ve attached CinCin’s website so you can check out all of the wonderful offerings. Yummy!

Final Thoughts

I can’t possibly give you an “experts” perspective of Vancouver based on the limited time I’ve spent there over the years. All large cities are complicated places and the traveler must take the good with the bad. Vancouver is, in many ways, a 21st Century city: ethnically diverse and economically vibrant, it has adapted well to a changing world. It has an excellent public transportation system that Seattle only wishes it could build. It also has homelessness and some fairly grimy districts. But, don’t let this stop you from visiting Vancouver. It’s a great place.

Pictured above is Vancouver, British Columbia. Beautiful isn't it? Most travelers to the Northwest know Seattle, WA and Portland, OR. In the not-so-distant future Vancouver, BC is going to be on the World's radar in a big way. Host of the 2010 Winter Olympics, Vancouver is quintessentially "northwest" and yet, it is cosmopolitian, international and bursting with boutiques, restaurants and parks.

The Amtrak train station in Edmonds, WA.

My wife and I are spending this weekend in Vancouver with friends to do a little shopping and get away for some R&R (translate: the ladies are shopping). We took Amtrak from Edmonds, WA to Vancouver. The train trip takes a couple of hours and passes through some beautiful country. Along the way, the train travels right along Puget Sound, so there are some great views of the bay and islands.

You know, coming to British Columbia is fun, because even though we're only a couple of hours away from Canada, it's still a "foreign" country. You do need your passport and you have to pass through customs. You must use Canadian money (still prettier than ours......still worth less) and Vancouver is truly international. The popluation is a blend of Europeans, Asians, East Indians, American Indians and many other ethnic groups. In the two days we've been here, I've heard British English, French, Arabic, Farsi, Norwegian, Spanish and a few other languages I didn't recognize.

We have spent most of our time visiting shops and dining along Robson Street which lies in the heart of the city. Here are a few pictures:

One thing I must say about Vancouver, it's a big place. There is a lot of traffic and there is a lot of construction going on which makes it noisy and congested. There are some nice old buildings sprinkled around the city center, but Vancouver has a more modern feel. Personally, I feel Seattle has more charisma even though Seattle is quite a bit smaller. I have more to say about our trip, but we still have one more day of adventure. Stay tuned!