Some time ago a not so famous segment posted on my facebook wall to hurry up and take advantage of the first time buyer tax credit before it expired. I commented that there is no way they can let this program expire in its current form as this is 50% of the already weak market. If you don't think this market is weak your nutso and if you don't admit it your a liar. Anyway about a year ago this month I had been a part of an article for the Milwaukee Journal regarding the market and how soft it was last year. In the area I had been working (
Wisconsin Dells Real Estate, Lake Delton Real Estate, and the surrounding areas) most of the transactions that were taking place were either cash sales, short sales, or foreclosure sales. I would say that was the largest segment of the market at about 30% of the closing sales. Today I am no longer active in selling properties, I cannot properly work for a seller while the market, the government, and the banks all work for the buyer. That is another story all together. I did, however read a post that suggested that over 50% of the sales are either short, or forclosure sales. So technically speaking if you take the cross section of that 50% you get to see pretty clearly a number of things.
The first thing I see in this market is that if the largest section of the market is distressed then you have to ask " who buys
distressed properties?" , and the answer is first time buyers...Investors looking to buy rental properties..and a very small percent will be upgrading their homes.
So if you think the fed would allow the largest section of the market to just vanish along with their borrow from Peter to pay Paul program, once again I think your nutso.
There is one segment that continues to be steady, stable, and pretty much neutral in terms of value.
Recreational property, yes land and farms are still chugging along at their own pace. This segment will outshine other areas in real estate due to its unique position. You can hunt on a wooded parcel, camp, and do a lot of things other than pray for your investment dollars to explode. So to make a long story short, I told ya so and I will do it again very soon.
